Titans of Wall Street

2/10/11 - poss strong pullback, stage 4

2012-02-10T22:26:00.000-08:00

SPX

SPY

SPX weekly

NYMO

2/3 - strong in stage 2

2012-02-06T04:35:00.000-08:00

SPX - stage 2

SPY - small time to buy last week

NYMO - safe

1/9 - stalled waiting to erupt higher

2012-01-10T03:45:00.001-08:00

SPX - stalled sideways

SPY - ascending triangle

1/6 - market unsure...

2012-01-09T03:22:00.000-08:00

SPX - not much resistance

SPY - much resistance

VIX - possible support

JJC - laggard but nice triangle

NYMO - not overbought yet

12/23 - bullish case

2011-12-26T05:56:00.000-08:00

12/22 - bullish now...but tri resistance

2011-12-23T05:24:00.000-08:00

SPX - breakout very probable

SPY - some nearterm resistance

XLF - same kind of triangle but bullish breakout hinted

12/19 - reasons to think bounce, but still downtrend

2011-12-20T06:21:00.000-08:00

12/16 - ready for a move up but not yet...tighten stops

2011-12-16T05:28:00.000-08:00

SPX
SPY

USO - bear

VIX - dunno

12/15 - still bearish but need to be cautious

2011-12-15T00:22:00.000-08:00

SPX - falling from the resistance..chance to go lower

SPY -

QQQ 30

VIX - not big moves

NYMO - oversold but not super lot yet

12/8 - stage 3

2011-12-08T01:14:00.000-08:00

SPX - risky to go long..not yet bearish yet though

SPY - resistance still there, stage 3

XLF - strongest sector

VIX - reversed..

12/6 - ready to short even more now

2011-12-06T03:32:00.000-08:00

SPX - still think we going lower

SPY - resistance here...

DIA - resistance here even after the morning spike

DIA 30 - resistance still alive

VIX - stage 1 going to stage 2?

NYMO - not overbought though....

12/5 - ready to short, but need patience

2011-12-05T04:33:00.000-08:00

SPX - still bullish but pointing to a tradable pullback

SPY - just know that the trend is still up...want to go short, but need confirmation

DIA - resistance strong at this level

DIA 30 - resistance is dead on..above and very bullish

QQQ - Huge volume at these price levels

NYMO - not yet overbought so thinking maybe not ideal time to short

11/29 - oversold rally, continue?

2011-11-29T03:52:00.000-08:00

SPX week - side in the longterm

SPX -oversold bounce

SPY - will it fill the gap?

VIX - coiling up

NYMO - oversold last week, now its still a bit...

11/22 - selling continues, take partial profit...reload later

2011-11-22T05:02:00.000-08:00

SPX - quite bearish

SPY - bounce possible but still bearish overall

DIA - finally brokedown on huge volume today...why DIA got so much volume and other charts no?

DIA - breakdown and retest...technically we shouild continue falling tomorrow...

QQQ - huge drop yet again from the failed move

11/21 - reversal or side...be cautious

2011-11-21T05:42:00.000-08:00

SPX - support?

SPY - u can see that support is real

QQQ - topping reversal triangle

VIX -channel range

NYMO - slightly oversold.

11/18 - triangle broken...bear side

2011-11-18T07:05:00.000-08:00

SPX - triangle idea tossed

SPY - got some weak support

QQQ 30 - huge orderly break..oh so bearish

XLF - possible bill wedge with much work needed

XLF 30 - huge break yesterday was a real signal of selling that came

VIX - resistance strong...lets see if its enough for a bounce

11/17 - tempted to go long...see some warnings

2011-11-17T05:22:00.000-08:00

SPX - perfect buy bounce?

SPY - right at support

IWM - still ok here too...

IWM 30 - still in a tight range with IWM...no breakdown as i might be worried about

XLF - broke some strong support...bearish sign

USO - super bullish since SPX start to consolidate...who will follow who?

UTIL - scary as it broke down and it is known to be a good predictor of SPX

11/16 - still triangle (bullish)

2011-11-16T05:46:00.000-08:00

SPX - still triangle

SPY - top of range again...want to see it move lower...then buy with both hands there

XLF = support bounce

11/15 - Still in Triangle, still bullish

2011-11-15T04:53:00.000-08:00

SPX - still in triangle

SPY - slightly off textbook as we did not hit resistance...showing more weakness here than i would like

XLF - support level...lets see if it holds

11/14 - starting to feel the market (take profits)

2011-11-14T06:18:00.000-08:00

SPX - on wave 4

SPY - resistance near

XLF - when it breaks out, BUY!

VIX - back to 30

11/10 - Consolidation Triangle

2011-11-10T06:12:00.000-08:00

SPX - consolidation triangle?

SPY - healthy pullback despite the huge size

QQQ - seems to just want to consolidate in this area of high volume for a while

XLF - huge surprise here to me...setting up for later possibly

VIX - some resistance above to cause us back in consolidation and not continued selloff

11/9 - bullish (buy)

2011-11-09T05:47:00.000-08:00

SPX - quite damn bullish

SPY - cut right through resistance

XLF - bullish !

VIX - not much support here

ETFs - XLF so strong...beginning of the big move up i think

11/8 - bullish financials

2011-11-08T06:27:00.001-08:00

SPX - not much happened..but recent bullish candles making me think possibly more strength than i expected

SPY - closing at highs so quite strong....in a tight range now...

VIX - is it showing its hand? bullish?

HEAT weekly - financials most oversold...i am liking them here...

11/7 - hold / bullish

2011-11-07T04:27:00.000-08:00

SPX - range?

SPY - not much to look at...

XLF - bullish wedge

not much new to talk about...more bullish than bearish as we still have a lil ways to go to the channel resistance and financials look bullish at this level

11/3 - market analysis

2011-11-03T06:47:00.000-07:00

SPX - strong hold of support...going to the high of the range i think

SPY - looking at this chart, maybe 2 more days of up...then stall and down we go again

NYMO - good time for superbulls

11/2 - market analysis

2011-11-02T06:45:00.000-07:00

SPX - got another level of support here

SPY - weak support, only from yesterday

QQQ - but good support on this 30min chart

VIX - hmm...is this really resistance or another untechnical chart?

VIX 30 - some resistance and huge range if we go back down..middleland

We are in no man's land right now....damned if u long, damned if u short...so i would be super cautious and might buy nothing even if the chart pattern is perfect....

Market Analysis - 11/1 - bullish (hold)

2011-11-01T06:22:00.000-07:00

SPX weekly - 2011 was bust

SPX - still on trend to go higher

SPY - still in channel

DIA - on trend

QQQ - nearing the highs....

IWM - hit the very old strong support last week...very important chart

VIX - think it is just a failed test of the breakdown..bullish

FXY - breaking down which is bullish for SPX

Wow...its been weeks, no months since i last did a market analysis..damn...its been too long...i am definitely rusty...i want to trade again...but i am not ready...need to start back slowly...first with market analysis to get a feel of the markets, then combine that with daily chart scans...hopefully get all this back on track within the next week or 2...can't waste more time...already wasted the last month's biggest gain in decades....

8/12 - pullback over? (hold stop)

2011-08-14T17:53:00.000-07:00

NYMO - back to full neutral

SPX - closed above resistance...good

TLT - showing strength today though..not good for bulls

VIX - shows that it again did not fall much and maybe ready to resume higher

XLK - what worries me most is seeing so many charts like this...basically a textbook pullback to breakdown levels and very likely this deadcat bounce is over and we drift lower monday

i have to stay bullish and we only have hints at a possible strong resistance from the breakdown level in some important charts...as we are still are probably cheaper than the stocks are worth, i think we can still go higher...but definitely a time to also look to the short side...

8/11 - reversal today needs confirmation

2011-08-11T18:54:00.000-07:00

TLT - big drop which makes sense with the market move...but thought gld would follow, but nope...also 1 day is not enough to break the TLT trend...

NYMO - neutral now...pullback over?

SPX - last minute selloff made the close a strong support going into tomorrow..rangebound a strong possibility

QQQ - same resistance in XLK and QQQ but this is quite an ugly chart for tech bulls as we are right at breakdown, making for a textbook pullback before more selling

MDY - midcaps got above resistance but as its not as important an index, dunno how much weight to give it

VIX - surprisingly, not a huge selloff here....this is a bearish sign that gives hope to bears that today's rally was bs

GLD - another bearish sign as a reversal in stocks should also be a reversal in other stuff such as the much looked at GLD...but in fact, gdx even rose

jobless claim numbers better than expected
ban on short ban proposed in europe...

got so many reasons to fear that today's push up was bs and that we will trade sideways...need confirmation of a move up and close about resistance for qqq and spx with a better selloff in vix and gld to make me feel better..but atleast there was a huge selloff in TLT which makes sense with the reversal...as i feel a big bounce from the lows made sense more than more selling, i also feel that this bounce we just had in 1 day and the stagnant moves of the last few days might be enough juice to move us way lower tomorrow or atleast firmly into a sideways pattern.

8/10 - time to go long

2011-08-11T18:15:00.000-07:00

forgot to post...but overall feeling was that a hold of the support level at the close makes for a strong reason that it can be the bottom, unless of course we break right below it tomorrow (which it didn't)....so at 8/10's night, i was ready to go long looking for other stocks that were able to hold off its lows and possibly be strong for the coming day as the risk to reward of going long here is so much better than going short...

and here is carter worth's take on it:

8/9 - time to bottom pick?

2011-08-09T21:55:00.000-07:00

SPX - March 2009 reversal

SPX - big reversal

QQQ - strongest index so if want to bottom pick, this is best

VIX - big move down here too...

NYMO - big bounce and still way oversold

As many investors feel like geniuses for getting out of their shorts yesterday and getting long today, i feel everything just cannot go straight up like how everyone's selective memory suggests. I have looked at the march 2009 bottom and reversal and it didn't have as huge a reversal as i remember...the reversal day didn't even look as clean as today with such big volume and range...and all this surprised me....i thought i knew what the reversal looked like but was wrong...in the weeks of rally following the bottom was a mixed bag of big up days and sideways small doji-ish days...so this tells me that even if we do rally, don't expect a straight up move up...i am also conflicted to bottom pick a super oversold stock that plummetted in all this or to be patient and only buy real bullish patterns...but as most stocks took a huge dive, nothing looks great technically but reversal oversold stocks

8/8 - still waiting for a bottom

2011-08-08T20:33:00.000-07:00

NYMO - super super oversold now

SPY - volume keeps rising..wow...waiting for 1st lower volume day to mark another hint that reversal is starting

UUP - calmest chart there is...makes me feel gold is very irrational and when that falls huge, market will most likely snapback huge as well...this shows that fear is rampant and irrational

VIX - huge move...super big candle that might even be bigger than LEH times...wow!

Market is so oversold that we should just jump in buying everything...but the timing still ain't right...the action makes me not even tempted to look for longs today as it feels that the bulls are still away and are in no rush to buy now...but of course a snapback will happen...and probably be big...and from this fall, we probably need some huge news as a catalyst to fear the bears...because at this moment, bears are so strong and comfortable that it will take a lot to change the entire environment imo...can't think we will gap up anywhere but more a huge reversal off a decent open and huge selloff is what i expect to be the reversal day...

8/5 - S+P downgrade factored into selling? (hold stop)

2011-08-07T21:50:00.000-07:00

Futures from S+P downgrade breaches friday's lows

SPY = finish way off the lows with HUGE volume

XLK = strongest sector able to hold above and close at its support

VIX - big reversal candle after shooting to super high levels today

SPX weekly - lows hit a prior pullback low...wonder if it will hold...huge drop this week..wow

i really want to call this a bottom but with the S+P downgrade, it actually makes more sense that tomorrow might be the bottom...hindsight all this selling was probably the smart money's way of valuing in the downgrade....if starts very very low like 400pts, i think we can come back late with huge volume and show a capitulation day...but who knows...

8/4 - no support (hold stop)

2011-08-04T21:23:00.000-07:00

SPY - big candle + no support left

VIX - huge candle making new highs

NYMO - despite not thinking it was possible, we broke below to make new lows

big 500+ pts loss
news blame it on "liquidity problems" brought on by contagion in EU especially italy...started to Jean Claude Trichet's comments
fell all day long and weak intraday rebounds failed everytime
weakest sector was Energy with oil dropping big from global slowdown worries
99% of SPX declines

Today felt like Lehman days...crazy...and this time it feels like no matter what crooked FED chief or gov't plan is to be made, it feels that markets will still fall as the problem is bigger than just america. it is the entire continent of Europe. So what is to happen next? no support so we should just keep falling...but also hard to believe as markets have fallen so much lately..what is it 9 of 10 days? over 10% loss in 2 weeks time...wow...

only thing that might help is good jobs numbers but as these problems are bigger than just something like jobs, i feel we will fall lower..but i would also be worrisome of holding huge put positions as the market is SOOOO oversold...but as the last few days showed, oversold is not great for timing...

8/3 - bullish reversal candle (buy stop)

2011-08-03T18:22:00.000-07:00

LSI - short took a plunge + long barely crossing - cautious bullish

SPY - pattern similar across all indexes, except QQQ less low vs June lows

VIX - not a big move, but i think its okay...means that the pullback might be stronger than ppl expect

XLF - reversal candle on good volume like all other sectors but this is the most battered chart of them all

XLI - most battered of late...looks very ripe to get back to the breakdown levels in the next few days

NYMO - bounce off that super oversold level...

Strongest Sectors today: XLK, XLI

bad job news, yet rally to close near highs

Because it feels like an oversold bounce today because of bs reasons in the news trying to explain the rally, i think the best stocks to go long on are the way oversold ones...the strongest buyers will probably be the value investors and definitely they will either hit up the way oversold, battered industial or pharma stocks for the strong tech stocks that have pulled back and are now good values again. Today could have been an entry day at the EOD just based on the candle but i think its still safer to just get in on a nice move tomorrow...any pattern will work including super solversold stocks like PEP and AKS

I held off on buying some pretty bearish patterns today and it turned out to be a great idea...had i not cared about the market i would have gotten in and been nearly stopped out by the eod...

8/2 - expecting reversal (hold stop)

2011-08-02T09:58:00.000-07:00

weak consumer shopping numbers hammer retailers
market continues to drift as senate votes on debt ceiling bill
cnbc's focus now sounding very pessimistic and all the bullish talk from earnings couple weeks ago are all gone...
technicians even eyeing 200ema
possible 8 straight down days

Strongest Sectors: GLD, QQQ, XLK
Weakest Sectors: XLF, XLI, PPH

can't believe just how weak the market was today...kept thinking a bounce and reversal would have happened today but it ever came..all day it was just selling...even with news around with the debt ceiling, investors sold off...as i kept hearing cnbc, i kept thinking just how pessimistic everyone has become...it is a total 180 from weeks ago when apple earnings was making everyone thing that we are going to the moon...now with 8 days of losses, fear is high....so we got the technical oversold, now we are getting the fear oversold, that means we might just be 1 step closer to a relief rally that surprises us all...great jobs numbers tomorrow from ADP? or will it take til friday for something to happen?

8/1 - bullish (hold stop)

2011-08-01T21:59:00.000-07:00

very weak how market was unable to hold any of the gains from the optimistic reaction to the weekend debt ceiling talks...
but market was able to come back eod to close at the middle of its range
range today was huge and as we off the lows and highs, neither bulls or bears won today...tomorrow is needed to get a better direction
charts show that internally we are starting to reverse, but no hard evidence yet
ISM numbers at 7am gave a huge push down after the slow drag lower as enthusiasm for debt ceiling agreements faded...this seems like a bigger future scare than the debt ceiling...definitely pros know that this can mean even more slowdown in the market is to come

Still like going long here more so than going short...still loving a reversal here but because of weakness, i am doubting a higher high from here but more a lower high with this next move...but definitely next move should be higher, just dunno how high..

7/29 - bullish (buy stop)

2011-07-29T12:41:00.000-07:00

market is telling me that its risky to hold over the weekend...especially since this weekend should be the time when big strides are made in the debt ceiling talks...
with a strong selloff leading up to this debt ceiling deadline, big surprise will definitely be to the upside not the downside...this means risk/ reward for bears is worse than bulls
only shorts worth holding onto currently are those that are doing worse than spy in short term time frame...stronger stocks are very very dangerous
VIX continues to hold strong and has a bullish triangle forming...
last minutes of trading are now showing weakness in the markets, not strength.
i can't see US defaulting on its debt...i will not be surprised to see an agreement made over the weekend with a huge rally in futures going into monday.
house is voting right now on boehner's plan that is said to fail immediately in the senate if it passes the house...
first time in several days that we are able to close nearer the highs than lows...but still a lateday selling campaign into the close...but today was less strong
as cramer said, it feel like short sellers are covering shorts and taking profits ahead of the weekend debt ceiling debate...we have seen to many times over when the gov't does some big thing and causes a huge futures jump right after the weekend..and like other shorts, i prefer to be safe than sorry...

So monday sounds like a perfect time for an oversold bounce back to prior highs...many bears prepared for it today and many bulls have been on the sidelines patiently waiting for it...will it come? unsure, but many signs of evidence that its possible..and if it does, i definitely will jump in with both fists buying long with a loose stop

7/28 - bearish (sell stop)

2011-07-28T19:08:00.000-07:00

News:

some huge movers especially Green Mountain Coffee with more outperfomances in earnings announcements
market strong, then mid day reversal that accelerated into the close
debt ceiling still all the talk...GOP version expected to be rejected later tonight in the house

based on everything, we are still bearish but stops need to be tight as a reversal is definitely in the cards. bulls are waiting for good news to stomp out the bears and to take advantage of the oversold conditions but bears remain strong as nothing changes with the news...

7/27 - bullish (buy stop) OR bearish (sell stop)

2011-07-27T22:23:00.000-07:00

Market looks ready to bounce...despite so much reason to be bearish from the last 2 days selloffs and still no sign of a debt ceiling agreement, i am feeling bullish after looking at the charts...so tomorrow is not a great time to go short and also a bad time to exit asap from a short position. think the best thing is to wait for the next great long setup...but if we continue to fall tomorrow and i see a good short setup, i would buy

7/26 - ???? (sell stop)

2011-07-26T20:20:00.000-07:00

DJIA again got hit from earnings..this time its 3m...and of course shows market weaker than it actually was
day started weak and got strong, but then fell apart at the close, this is bearish
but market is still holding up well despite reasons to selloff....think optimism is high because traders feel that this debt ceiling this is overblown and when its resolved, market will rally...but of course, if so many people believe this, its not a bad idea to bet against it
tech was the leader
steel stocks dropped like crazy...AKS down 17% after earnings, X down 8%

market strong, then selloff at the close...dow weaker, VIX and SPX charts showing weakness, but pulse of the market is still quite bullish with just a reserved pullback currently...again, i feel that its risky to go long or short...hate feeling this cautious but the market is not acting right...with 1 huge news piece looming over our heads, its just risky....and charts aren't confirming in any directions....so far, only confirmed moves are earnings surprises...outside of that, i was not even tempted to go long or short....

7/25 - bull + bear (sell stop)

2011-07-25T20:21:00.000-07:00

QQQ leader, XLF lags
XLF took a big hip today..back below 30min EMA
VIX jumped above EMA
news still dominated by debt ceiling talks

Market feels like its waiting for debt ceiling talks to end as prices expect and then it can react to other news....for now though, with the big drop in the morning then a strong recovery the rest of the day, i think neither bulls nor bears have command...so even with a great setup confirmation, unless we get a resolution of debt ceiling causing a breakout move in the indexes, it is risky...but not still worth the risk in most cases

7/22 - cautious bull (sell stop)

2011-07-22T13:22:00.000-07:00

this past week's earnings was tech and financials...no coincidence that even with some dissapointments, they were the leadership groups...think for this earnings seasons, whichever group reports will outperform because expectations are so low
next week is energy reporting...think they are the best of the bunch to buy
i am undecided...if a good bullish setup pops up, i will be tempted to buy but unless market breaks to new highs, it is very risky...
also, if short setup pops up, risky to short as the overall feel of the market seems to want to go higher esp as QQQ already went to new highs and same with XLU...as well as dollar breaking down
overall, i think its better to be bullish than bearish but also need to keep a tight "sell stop" on either position as headline risk and news is plentiful in these coming days

Bullish

- NDX broke prior high
- leaders of last week has been energy, financials, and then tech....these are the biggest and most important sectors so this is a good thing...
- despite bad CAT earnings which is usually a very important stock, market was unfazed except for the djia and tech just kept trotting higher
- much talk about debt ceiling being scary and the end of america...but investors shrugged that off too all day able to hold ground.
- any day now, a debt ceiling agreement should be met, and when that happens, it should give a good to investors

Bearish

- DIA fell big vs other indexes and still below its strong resistance (said because CAT earnings)

- utilities dropped

- RKH at prior resistance as well
- europe got its bailout for greece yet market will not rejoice like the rest of the world.

7/21 - bullish (hold)

2011-07-21T06:52:00.000-07:00

Bullish

- XLU has a nice cup and handle while other etfs have a funny looking sym triangle

- financials are outperformers with earnings better than expected atleast in terms of stock performance reaction, probably because of MS earnings

- utilities at new high

- NYMO middle and oversold SS

- despite fears on debt ceiling, market made nice bullish candle that means the street doesn't care

- UUP bearish breakdown of sym triangle

- VIX still weak

- XLF already has a greater than 61.8% retrace

Bearish

- DIA right at prior high...exact point when zoomed into 30min chart

- if we get more complications with debt ceiling agreement, market can overreact and reverse in a hurry

- banks already moved a lot...and when they are weak..so they might be overbought already

if not for the big move in banks and news, i would leave the stop nice and wide for longs...
but with headline risk, safer with "hold" stop...but definitely not time for a "sell stop"

7/20 - bullish (sell stop)

2011-07-20T10:09:00.000-07:00

financials leaders
despite good reason for a good day (yesterday's rally, aapl's earnings), we stay slightly negative most of the day
news emphasized how gang of 6 plan is not going as smoothly through congress as previously planned

bullish

- XLF led and now above EMA on 60min

- VIX fell again and now 2nd day in a row below 60min ema

- despite sideways action today, 60min charts of indexes still bullish

bearish

- market unable to grab a nice gain even with AAPL's good earnings and strong futures

- indexes closed at the lows of the day

- market basically just traded sideways

7/19 - bullish (buy stop)

2011-07-19T12:08:00.000-07:00

- financials reported...BAC + GS dissapoint, WFC surprises up

- AAPL to report after the bell

- debt ceiling compromise is near as "gang of 6" gives a proposal, said to easily pass - gave strong boost intraday for 2nd leg up

- TECH leads

- IBM and KO earnings were good giving a boost to morning futures

- best day in dow and qqq in months

- no talk of europe debt

Bullish
- 30min charts reversed to the upside
- NYMO ready to turn over as SS is oversold and we are near oversold as well
- 1st strong day that held up in weeks
- big candle that engulfs are small prior action making for a great signal that we can be starting a new leg up
- if go up, we got lots of room to move up before any resistance

Bearish
- as today we flipped asap just because of news, we can get more bad news that switches everything up all over again

7/18 - bearish (hold stop)

2011-07-18T21:23:00.001-07:00

GLD continues to rise
after the bell IBM again beats expectations and rises after hours
again, stocks slide intraday but able to stay off lows by eod
news is same stuff....europe bank crisis
financials by far the weakest sector...
SPY breaks down in 30min chart and at EOD, is hugging that breakdown level...
some oversold levels seen in NYMO
many banks + financial big names report earnings tomorrow

Market keeps trying to show strength and that does scare me as i am holding a put position but nothing really bullish yet overall....we still have lower lows and as we broke down more today and was unable to capitalize on any of the strong earnings yet and keep having weak intraday actions despite some promising eod relief rallies, i think its definitely better to stay bearish and leave some room as we are more likely to go lower from here, especially the financials....what does worry me most is how financials report tomorrow and since they have been so battered lately, expectations are so low that any kind of upbeat surprise will make the market surge which is horrible for my position

7/15 - ???? (sell stop)

2011-07-17T19:45:00.000-07:00

google got huge earnings giving early pop in futures, but soon after, market lower...
despite closing well off the lows at the eod with a nice pop late in the day, we still in a sidetrend even on the very short term 10min chart
reversal daily candles on several charts such as XLF
market indicators no longer oversold or overbought so can go either way....
energy well out-performed other sectors, guessing because of buyout of one of the companies (pretrohawk)
dollar looks ready to go higher which is bearish...but nothing is confirmed
financials continue to be laggards especially big names but still closed WAY off the lows of the day

overall, i think the market is still up in the air...got reversal candles on some of the index charts but doesn't mean that anything is confirmed...we can easily fall monday and if that happens, we are still bearish, waiting for confirmation...but if rally, then a great time to go long as it has a good chance to continue...so keep stops tight and eyes glued on the watchlists ready to go long

7/14 - bearish (sell stop)

2011-07-14T23:31:00.000-07:00

close at lows yet again, 4th day in a row now!
higher futures led to even open but in the end only the featured stocks (jpm, cop) that were in the news made a good gain
fell out of small 30min consolidation range, bearish
supposedly, market fell because of bernanke comments hinting that qe3 is not going to happen
afterhours 10%+ gain in google as it reports very very good earnings...knocks the ball off its cover!
have a feeling tomorrow we will again have strong futures based on earnings and other news, but in the end, only the stocks in the news get strong move....

market now has a strong pullback...SPX at 50%, DIA and QQQ at 38% and XLF > 61%, IWM >38%...if bullish, feel its ready to buy back and normalize this correction...if bearish, i would look at the weakness of the market after good news and strong earnings...so in my opinion, its still bearish until proven otherwise...and that means atleast 1 day where we can close near the highs and not have a strong late day selloff...

7/13 - side (sell stop)

2011-07-13T19:50:00.001-07:00

selloff eod after markets up as much as 160....today, SPY even went negative
VIX kept rising all day despite spike at the open
VIX still in range
despite market weakness, later in the day, we got a doji...not so bad...just indecision
30 min charts of indexes broke above 60ema and now straddling it...means we have a nearterm possible bottom
after the close, moody's hinted that it will downgrade america's debt if it cannot raise the debt ceiling which dropped futures
despite not a huge gain, we did register a gain in the dow which stops the losing streak

overall i think we have as high a chance to go higher as much as lower...but i am slightly favoring higher...sure, we have real problems in the world now with the european debt crisis and america's debt ceiling, but the market is not losing control yet...if i was still holding a short, i would still feel fine but with a tight "sell stop"....and either direction with a good setup will be good as it should start the next leg...today is harder to choose the direction, but a big move in either direction tomorrow will decide where the market is going next

7/12 - bearish (sell stop)

2011-07-12T20:12:00.001-07:00

opened way off lows from the futures from europe's debt crisis...more specifically failure of a few italian banks to pass the stress test
morning story was that ECB was going to buy Italian bonds which was never confirmed...
FED minutes hinted at a possible QE3 if jobs numbers were bad (which they were) and gave a quick small spike in the market
during last 30min, moody's downgraded ireland's debt to junk which dropped the market...
market closed right at its lows as it broke down from its consolidation range throughout the day (tight range most of the day)
NYMO right at 0 now, so no longer overbought...

I feel that the market is weak but not very weak...judging from most charts, we are still at a healthy pullback so i would keep stops tight on any shorts and still would not go long yet...but if we get a move down tomorrow with some nice setups, i would go short without much hesitation...so my verdict is bearish, but stop at "sell"

7/11 - hold

2011-07-11T19:22:00.001-07:00

Bullish
- from the very lows prior to the current leg up, we retraced 38%...if this level holds, we can easily jump up again as these 2 days of selloff can be seen as healthy
- not any new events that dropped us today...just same talk about europe debt crisis
- after the bell, AA reported and it was in line with expectations which is more good than bad for the market
- technology still holding stronger than DIA and SPX

Bearish
- market did not get a huge kick up eod...stayed near lows of the day
- way overbought so we can definitely go down much lower.
- FXE breakdown and UUP breakout of sym triangle
- all indexes just starting crossover in SS
- VIX finally broke out of its consolidation range and go much higher
- basically all sideways patterns caused by last monday broke to the bearish side today

BUY - SELL - HOLD

hold seems like the best decision as buying before eod or even last week was most ideal
as markets are still in an uptrend, these pullbacks can reverse back and start a new leg to new highs at any moment
better to have a moderate stop than a very loose one as this is a countertrend move

Strength - tech, dollar, gld
Weakness - financials

7/8 - wait and see

2011-07-10T22:31:00.000-07:00

Buy?
- market closed well off its lows..
- trend is still up...nothing broken...today just shows us going sideways
- despite super bad jobs numbers, we didn't open as low as futures expected and definitely did not close as low as expected either

Side??
- as we are sidetrending in 30min charts of VIX and XLF
- bulls still are in charge so we should not fall much...and bulls need to take some profits, so instead of falling (because bears are too weak), sidetrend might be the most likely thing
- dollar and FXE are still in a trading range

Sell??
- market is super overbought in NYMO and PUT/CALL ratio
- financials keep remaining the laggard
- NDX is right at prior high and other indexes are getting close to it

Verdict?
- if market cannot continue its selling on monday, but instead makes a strong bullish move or reversal, go long
- if market does drop more on monday, great time to short any confirmed setups
- stay patient as the next move (if its to the short side) can be huge!

7/7 - hold

2011-07-07T19:27:00.000-07:00

Summary

SAME STORE SALES - Retailers got great same store sales causing big bump in many retailers (many 5+% gains)
ADP JOBS - upside surprise with ADP jobs numbers...this surprised many investors and made them bullish ahead of tomorrow's jobs numbers...but remember that as expectations will be high for a good number tomorrow, if it gives us a downside shock, we might have a huge selloff...and a good number will mean continued bullishness
QQQ - got a new intraday high on the tech index...so far SPX just keeps following $TRAN and QQQ as it breaks prior resistance and keeps going higher...so best to have money in tech or transport and keep watching them for the next move.
DEFENSIVE - money moving out of defensive sectors like consumer staples and pharma
XLF - huge move in financials today as well...finally joining the rally, bullish

buy / sell / hold

overall, bullish...so if u got a position, best to hold it with a nice loose stop...and if got nothing, should have bought earlier as now is not ideal to buy.

Leader: Retailers, Copper, Financials
Laggard: solar, pharmaceuticals, consumer staples

7/6 - hold

2011-07-06T22:30:00.000-07:00

- things looked weak and near ready to be sold but in the last few minutes of trading, some buying came back in and helped many stocks and indexes close near its highs....
- midday weakness felt fake and was fake...bears are scared and bulls waiting to rebuy after the breather is over
- again, financials is the only sector that showed real weakness...but still it closed at its highs and looks like it had a good enough pullback to resume its uptrend
- QQQ went above its strong daily resistance and $tran at new highs...definitely bullish signs
- weakness started with strong dollar and weak Euro...if this continues, we might get a strong pullback to add to this recent sideways action

buy / sell / hold
- as market is still way overbought and extended, any little jitter on news can send us tumbling...be careful and hold...not buy...when big enough a pullback lately to be a great buy day

Leader: QQQ, DIA
Laggard: financials

7/5 - 1 min

2011-07-05T23:17:00.000-07:00

definitely feels like the bulls got a handle on things and pressure is on the bears to bring everything back down....even with the portugal downgrade and last week's strong bullish action, the market held up today....no strong reversal down in the eod means the bears are scared...

buy / sell / hold
yes we are overbought which means buying new positions now (or last friday) was not ideal as opposed to 6/27 when the rally started but we can still hold and wait...also too early to go short...but if we get a strong reversal candle and confirmation weakness after, we got a few great charts to selloff

strong sector: energy, tech (nflx), gold, oil
weak sector: financials

7/3 - 1 min

2011-07-03T22:37:00.001-07:00

market still feels like it will stubbornly keep chugging higher despite all the reasons why the market should fall. i think it should fall as well but what i think does not matter..most important is what happens with the market, not what i think...

so with that in mind, i decided to continue chasing the trend and bought long today. may turn out wise or may turn out to buy at the peak...but if there is a reversal, i plan to get out quick...if it keeps going, i will not have to be mad that i didn't make any money...this is how i want to trade in the present and future as it has what worked best for me in the past.

6/30 - 1 min

2011-06-30T22:39:00.001-07:00

the market continues to be strong and is making more believers of the rally but still many don't believe it...i am in the sideways camp where i really have no idea if this will go way higher or stop soon and fall back down...sentiment-wise, it really doesn't feel like we are gonna have a much bigger drop soon...more likely to go higher actually...weird huh?

but i think techincally, we need to see where UUP goes...breaks down and we have to buy with both fists...if bounces and goes higher, then we will have a nice round of selling...watch that and keep ahead of the news...

6/30 - SPX follows UUP

2011-06-30T12:33:00.000-07:00

this rally is quite strong...and this chart shows where it might go next...no better chart at the moment for prediction

6/29 - 1 min

2011-06-29T12:08:00.000-07:00

1 minute review:

market sure feels stronger than i expected...NYMO is way overbought but I feel there is so much doubt of this rally that it might actually go much further...let's just say that i would feel better holding a long than a short or nothing at this moment. news of greece and credit cards was supposed to be the bullish reasons for the rally today but i think its just buyers wanting to get back in on this...also, with today's actions many of my bearish - variable setups became null...i feel the smart money is bullish..but honestly, i also feel quite confused...

Weekly Analysis - 5/20

2011-05-20T10:52:00.000-07:00

SPX weekly

SPX

SPY

XLF

XLF 30

VIX

Weekly Analysis - 5/13

2011-05-13T17:30:00.000-07:00

SPX

SPY

QQQ

XLF

JJC

NYMO

Weekly Analysis - 5/6

2011-05-06T21:59:00.000-07:00

SPX weekly

SPX

XLF

JJC

USO

UUP

NYMO

Weekly Analysis - 4/29

2011-04-29T19:11:00.000-07:00

SPX weekly

SPX

DIA 30

XLF 30

VIX 30

NYMO

Weekly Analysis - 4/15

2011-04-15T19:27:00.000-07:00

SPX

SPY

VIX

NYMO

Weekly Analysis - 4/8

2011-04-08T12:44:00.000-07:00

Weekly Analysis - 4/1

2011-04-01T19:27:00.001-07:00

way overbought on NYMO...be cautious as a bull and be ready for any pullbacks soon...

Weekly Analysis - 3/25

2011-03-25T22:37:00.000-07:00

Weekly Analysis - 3/18

2011-03-18T15:23:00.000-07:00

Weekly Analysis - 3/11

2011-03-11T23:46:00.000-08:00

JJC - most bearish chart as we broke down and retesting the broken support

Weekly Analysis - 3/4

2011-03-04T12:34:00.000-08:00

3/2 - sidetrend

2011-03-02T19:05:00.000-08:00

Commodities Denominated in Gold (20 yr)

2011-03-02T12:36:00.000-08:00

Jim Rogers always talks about the true price of any commodity is all relative. And the best way to check the price of them is not with the US dollar as it has been devalued, but with Gold. Gold is the true currency of the world and the only form of currency that cannot be created out of thin air. To understand more of the big picture, we need to see everything in gold, not fiat money. So below are the 20 year charts for the big commodities.

You will notice that commodities have had a huge run up in real value in the past 2 decades...Prior to this decade, I can confidently attribute that to demand and the growth of the world economy and improved conditions in some major countries. But the recent rise i feel is due more to the debasing of our currency.

Most noticeably is the difference between the dollar denominated chart of SPX vs its gold denominated one. These charts illustrates the true picture of the US economy. We have had a huge run up without any real growth. No new jobs are being created and companies are not worth any more now than 10 years ago. They are actually worth way less. But we don't see this as all the media and FED care about is how many dollars these companies are worth, not how much real commodities or gold it can buy...

I believe whole-heartedly that the worst is not over for stocks and the price of commodities. Commodities were supposed to rise just like gold in the past decade but haven't. Like gold, commodities are a safe haven for investors and used as protection from inflation. It only makes sense that if the currency you use to buy commodities drops that the amount of that currency needed to buy that commodity increases at a similar factor. But that is not what we saw. There was actually a big drop in the price of commodities. Much of that was probably due to the bubble that burst in 2008 food crisis but also due to the slowdown in America and China's consumption due to the recession. But that selloff was overdone. Investors forgot all about the weakening of the dollar. Now, as stocks have had their huge runup, investors are looking elsewhere and finally realizing that commodities are way undervalued.

The price of commodities when denominated in gold at a "normal time" free of fear and inflation only affected by a supply and demand. As world demand grows for commodities, the price will rise for the time being until supply can meet that demand. And when demand is low, supply continues to fall until it meets demand. Supply and demand is always trying to be at equilibrium and the price of the product ensures this happens. This would mean that all the charts of all commodities should move within a channel normally. The movement should be smooth unless we have huge supply disruptions.

But in the real world, the world we live in today, the devaluing of the dollar plays a critical role in the price of commodities. It causes an artificial rise in the price of the commodity without raising supply nor demand. all it does is shift equillibrium point higher up on the dollar scale. When shown vs gold, the commodities charts will remain calm as its standardized to show mainly the supply and demand picture. But when shown on a dollar denominated chart, we will see a huge rise in commodities prices.

The trick is to see how much these commodities are really worth vs gold. I think copper illustrates the world economy the best. Copper is used in most technological products. It is consumed in huge levels in china now and represents the true production of products in the world. When copper rises, world production is healthy and when it falls, production is slow. This can be seen as how 5 years ago on the Copper/Gold when every country in the world was doing well and producing a lot, the price was at an all time high....then we had the recession and the price of copper plummeted. But now China is producing again and also is some parts of Europe and America and copper is rising. But does the economy feel as strong as it was 5 years ago? Ask anyone and they will say no. So why then are we at all time highs in copper prices denominated in dollars? Well...that is not supply and demand...so it must be factors related to the dollar such as inflation. What is really happening with copper is that demand has risen from the low but we are still way below the highs of production set 5 years ago. Until we get back to that level, the world economy is still in a recession. And until SPX breaks its downtrend (SPX/gold chart), america is still in a recession. In fact, we have been in a recession since clinton left office. We just have been fooled as our blinders were on and could not see that the rallies since 2000 were all artificially created by a weakened dollar.

Summation Points

the cost of gas, food, and clothing does not cost more now than 5 years ago...it just costs more to currencies holding crap currency like America.
our government is making us poorer by decreasing our purchasing power in the world market
fiat money gave us 2 huge rallies since 2000
America has been less productive in the last 10 years and continues to decline

Gold 20 yrs

SPX 20 yr

SPX / gold

Copper

Copper / gold

Corn

Corn / gold

Crude

Crude / gold

Oats

Oats / gold

Silver

Silver / gold

Soybeans

Soybeans / gold

Wheat

What / gold

Commodities Denominated in Gold (5 yr)

2011-03-02T10:58:00.000-08:00

Info on Charts:

using Continually Adjusted Futures Contracts
graphs are the commodity future contact divided by the gold future contract
log charts
5 year weekly charts

My Conclusions from the Charts

we are not at all time high prices in commodities
these charts are not fully accurate on the true price of commodities because the price of gold is inflated due to fear
this chart is still a better representation than just the price of the commodities vs the dollar as the dollar has been depreciated and inflation is not a factor in the charts
commodity prices have risen a lot in the past year, but not nearly as much as it seems
we are far off from the highs of 2008 food crisis levels
the world has been lucky with the price of commodities decline in past few years but prices are finally starting to go back to normal levels
the price of commodities can rise much much more
cotton, silver, and soybeans are really at all time highs

Gold Futures

$SPX

$SPX / Gold

Copper Futures

Copper / Gold

Corn Futures

Corn / Gold

Cotton Futures (3 yrs)

Cotton / Gold (3 yrs)

Crude Oil Futures

Crude / Gold

Oats Futures

Oat / Gold

Rough Rice Futures

Rough Rice / Gold

Silver Futures

Silver / Gold

Soybeans Futures

Soybean / Gold

Wheat Futures

Wheat / Gold

3/1 - 22% bearish

2011-03-01T21:30:00.001-08:00

2/28 - 67% bullish

2011-02-28T21:29:00.000-08:00

2/25 - 78% bullish

2011-02-25T18:29:00.000-08:00

2/24 - 22% bearish

2011-02-24T19:44:00.000-08:00

2/23 - 67% bearish

2011-02-23T19:49:00.001-08:00

2/22 - 67% bearish

2011-02-22T21:40:00.000-08:00

only a few oil companies posted gains

2/18 - 44% bullish

2011-02-18T18:17:00.000-08:00

2/17 - 67% bullish

2011-02-17T20:51:00.000-08:00

financials lag

2/16 - 44% bullish

2011-02-16T22:12:00.000-08:00

2/15 - 33% bearish

2011-02-15T21:21:00.001-08:00

2/14 - 71% bullish

2011-02-14T20:42:00.000-08:00

2/11 - 71% bullish

2011-02-11T14:40:00.000-08:00

2/10 - 100% side

2011-02-10T20:32:00.000-08:00

2/9 - 100% bullish

2011-02-09T15:56:00.000-08:00

2/8 - 86% bullish

2011-02-08T20:44:00.000-08:00

2/7 - 67% bullish

2011-02-07T20:56:00.001-08:00

2/4 - 75% bullish

2011-02-04T16:51:00.000-08:00

2/3 - 78% side

2011-02-03T00:01:00.000-08:00

2/2 - 100% bullish

2011-02-02T18:22:00.000-08:00

2/1 - stage 2a

2011-02-01T22:51:00.000-08:00

1/31 - stage 1a

2011-01-31T21:53:00.000-08:00

1/28 - stage 4a

2011-01-28T23:29:00.000-08:00

1/27 - stage 2b

2011-01-27T22:35:00.000-08:00

1/26 - stage 2a

2011-01-26T23:06:00.000-08:00

1/25 - stage 3b

2011-01-25T23:00:00.000-08:00

1/24 - stage 2a

2011-01-24T19:06:00.000-08:00